The Formula 1 rumour mill is once again in full swing, with recent speculation suggesting Max Verstappen could be on the move to Mercedes in 2026.
However, Toto Wolff’s latest comments strongly indicate that Mercedes intends to stick with its current driver line-up, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. This stance may signal Verstappen has already decided to remain with Red Bull.
If so, that decision likely came in the aftermath of Christian Horner’s departure, with any potential agreement to stay happening after the fact.
While no official announcements have been made, the timing and tone of recent statements have fueled speculation surrounding Verstappen’s future.
Verstappen, currently sitting third in the 2025 standings ahead of this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix, has endured a challenging campaign. With Red Bull no longer holding a dominant edge, the Dutchman has found himself battling the McLaren duo of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris more often than he’d like.
Frustration has been visible in the Red Bull garage, prompting increased speculation about Verstappen’s long-term commitment to the team.
Mercedes has emerged as the most heavily rumoured destination if Verstappen were to jump ship, a theory further fuelled by the current lack of confirmed contract renewals for Russell and rising star Antonelli.
However, in a recent interview with Austrian broadcaster ORF (as quoted by GPBlog), Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff appeared to downplay the likelihood of signing Verstappen.
“The direction we want to take is to continue with George and Kimi. That’s our top priority. Everyone is informed,” Wolff stated, adding that there will be “no big surprises” in Mercedes’ 2026 line-up.
Wolff continued, “It’s not just about the team making a decision. The drivers also need to know where they stand. We have always tried to stick to this rule. And we will do it again now.”
Before Wolff’s recent interview, outside voices have added fuel to the speculation fire. Speaking on the Pelas Pistas podcast, Nelson Piquet Jr., the uncle of Verstappen’s daughter, shared his insight.
“There are weekends this year when things just don’t work out. There’s not much to do about it,” Piquet said, referencing Red Bull’s recent form.
“One of their drivers is a rookie, who was then unfortunately hit by Hadjar last weekend. In any case, it was not the weekend for Mercedes. But who knows what next year might bring when Max is driving there! He will race in Formula 1 in 2026. I think he will make a decision by August.”
While Piquet didn’t offer any confirmation, his comments and sudden silence after dropping the line raised eyebrows.
Pressed further, he added that if Verstappen does move to Mercedes, he believes the team will pair him with Kimi Antonelli:
“It will be Kimi Antonelli. If he goes there, it will be Antonelli.”
Piquet has since backtracked on his comments, likely in damage control mode.
Should Verstappen exit Red Bull, which is looking unlikely at this stage, speculation naturally turns to who might replace him. One recurring name is Oscar Piastri, who was previously linked to Red Bull by Horner, who had said he would consider pursuing the young Australian if Verstappen were ever to leave.
Although Horner is no longer team principal, his comments have resurfaced amid the latest wave of rumours, with Helmut Marko reportedly sharing the same thoughts on Piastri.
When asked about the speculation earlier this year, Piastri dismissed it:
“I think we all know that Helmut says a lot of things in the press. As far as I’m aware, there’s no truth to it.”
“I’m very, very happy where I am. The team have supported me massively since I came into F1; they gave me my opportunity in F1. At the moment in the standings, we’re in a very happy place, so I am more than happy with where I am at the moment.”
Piastri further cemented his loyalty to McLaren by signing a contract extension in March.
“It’s a great feeling knowing that I’m part of McLaren’s long-term vision. The team had the belief in me when we signed in 2022, and the journey we’ve gone on over the past two seasons to help return McLaren to the very top of the sport has been incredible.”
“There are so many talented and special people working at MTC who have helped me to become a Formula 1 race winner very early in my career. Therefore, I’m very proud to be continuing to represent this legendary team for many years to come.”
While none of these developments provide concrete proof of an impending move and with no official announcements of contract renewals within the Mercedes camp, the pieces have certainly fallen into place for speculation to flourish.
Verstappen remains under contract at Red Bull, but his recent demeanour, combined with comments from insiders and rivals, continues to spark intrigue about what the 2026 grid might look like.
For now, it’s all just theory, but as Formula 1 has shown time and again, the sport thrives as much on what might happen as on what does.
Header Image: Clive Rose/Getty Images via Red Bull Content Pool
